Following the agreement between the European Union and the United States on the tariff dispute, many companies are now asking themselves how their U.S. business will move forward. While the European Commission has announced that further tariff reductions are under negotiation, affected businesses must already rethink their strategies. To better understand what options companies still have, we spoke with logistics consultant and member of our Advisory Circle, Stefan Schäfer.
In collaboration with expectus GmbH – Consultancy for Logistics Optimization and Cost Reduction
A New Base Tariff of 15 Percent
The new tariff framework targets all countries of origin, making once-common shoring loopholes uncompetitive. Offshoring – relocating production directly to the United States – remains the only way to escape the tariff challenge entirely.
But for German companies, setting up production in the U.S. is often far from realistic. Instead, Stefan Schäfer, CEO of expectus GmbH and long-time GACC West Advisory Circle member, introduces us to the expectus approach.
Reality is: companies focusing only on tariffs capture at best 20% of the potential savings. But analyzing the entire supply chain unlocks more than five times the optimization opportunities
The New Reality and Its Consequences
Here’s a scenario familiar to many exporters: A German machinery manufacturer ships goods to the United States. Everything runs smoothly – until an unexpected email arrives from customs. New tariff rate: +15 percent. Effective immediately.
“The inevitable result? Shrinking margins, renegotiated prices, and projects suddenly at risk. Long-standing processes that worked for years no longer hold up overnight. Companies must look for new solutions,” Schäfer warns.
Tariffs: Optimize Instead of Circumvent
The first reflex many companies have when faced with tariffs is the same: How do we avoid them?
“Our experience shows that the better question is: How do we design the entire supply and transport chain so that tariffs are just one cost factor among many – and no longer the key driver?” Schäfer explains.
Stefan Schäfer is the CEO of expectus GmbH. The logistics consultancy, headquartered in Monheim am Rhein with an office in San Francisco, helps companies identify cost-saving opportunities in transatlantic trade.
Shifting Perspective: The Full Supply Chain in Focus
Tariffs are only one piece of a much larger puzzle. True cost optimization spans multiple dimensions, including:
- Supply chain structure
- Incoterms*
- Packaging and volume calculations
- Location strategy for warehousing and distribution
- Contract design with suppliers and customers
*Standardized trade terms governing cost, risk, and obligations in international trade, set by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).
“Reality is: companies focusing only on tariffs capture at best 20% of the potential savings. But analyzing the entire supply chain unlocks more than five times the optimization opportunities,” Schäfer emphasizes, drawing on his 35+ years of logistics expertise.
Whoever addresses costs only at the border misses the biggest savings. The real levers are upstream—embedded in planning, routing, and total supply chain design.
The expectus Principle
Exclusively for GACC USA – San Francisco, Stefan Schäfer presents the expectus principle, which he successfully built his consultancy on in 2000:
- Analyze the current cost structure
- Simulate alternative scenarios (including customs, transport, and ancillary costs)
- Implement with controlled pilot testing
- Charge fees only after proven savings
The model is clear: No savings, No fees.
If no cost-saving potential is identified, you pay nothing. If there is, expectus ensures practical implementation. This promise also applies to expectus Inc., established in the U.S. since 2007.
“Whoever addresses costs only at the border misses the biggest savings. The real levers are upstream – embedded in planning, routing, and total supply chain design. Across more than 150 audits in our 25-year history, only once did we find zero savings potential,” Schäfer explains.
Harnessing these levers not only cuts costs but also secures a competitive edge.
Stefan Schäfer is a member of the GACC Advisory Circle. Through cross-industry exchange, the Circle fosters a transatlantic ecosystem that drives future-oriented decisions on both sides of the Atlantic.
The expectus GmbH Offer
expectus GmbH invites companies to uncover untapped savings potential in their supply chain design. Get in touch with Stefan Schäfer’s team for a confidential consultation: info@expectus.com.
About Stefan Schäfer
Stefan Schäfer is the innovator behind the expectus principle and has worked in logistics for over 35 years. Before founding expectus in 2000, he held senior positions at major logistics firms in both Germany and the United States.
About the GACC West Advisory Circle
The GACC Advisory Circle brings together thought leaders from Silicon Valley and beyond. With their sector expertise and global networks, they actively shape our programs and events – strengthening the German-American business ecosystem.
This article was created in collaboration with expectus GmbH, whose CEO Stefan Schäfer is a member of the GACC USA – San Francisco Advisory Circle.
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